{"id":10013,"date":"2026-05-28T16:44:33","date_gmt":"2026-05-28T08:44:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/?p=10013"},"modified":"2026-05-28T16:44:50","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T08:44:50","slug":"pce%e5%8f%8d%e5%bc%b9%e7%a1%ae%e8%ae%a4%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e9%bb%8f%e6%80%a7%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e8%bd%ac%e5%90%91%e4%b8%8e%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e6%a0%bc%e5%b1%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/archives\/10013","title":{"rendered":"The rebound in PCE confirms the stickiness of inflation, the Fed\u2019s policy shift and the reshaping of the market structure"},"content":{"rendered":"

The CD Markets macro research team combines the high-frequency tracking model of inflation, the latest statements of the Federal Reserve officials, and cross-validation analysis of global institutions to believe that the upcoming April PCE price index will confirm the clear trend of U.S. inflation rebounding. Inflation is spreading from the energy side to the food, service industry, and durable goods, completely ending the market\u2019s fantasy of interest rate cuts, and the Fed\u2019s policy balance has been fully tilted towards the hawks. CD Markets relies on the inflation sub-item tracking system, the Federal Reserve policy monitoring framework and the cross-market linkage analysis model to help investors penetrate the data surface and grasp the core logic of inflation evolution and the main line of asset allocation.<\/p>\n

<\/a>April PCE inflation outlook: dual-driven by energy + AI, stickiness exceeds market expectations<\/strong><\/p>\n

The CD Markets inflation tracking model shows that the U.S. PCE price index will rise to 3.8% year-on-year in April, setting a new three-year high since June 2023. The core PCE will also rise to 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with the mainstream market expectations. On a month-on-month basis, the overall PCE monthly rate is expected to record 0.5%, and the core PCE monthly rate remains unchanged at the previous value of 0.3%. The trend of inflation rebounding is very clear.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

This round of inflationary rebound is not driven by a single energy factor, but shows the characteristics of comprehensive contagion. CD Markets breaks down the core drivers as follows:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Energy shocks continue to be transmitted<\/strong>: The impact of the nearly 21% month-on-month surge in gasoline and energy product prices in March continues to be felt. The high oil prices caused by the US-Iran conflict are being transmitted to the entire industry through the industrial chain, becoming the core basis for the rebound in inflation.<\/li>\n
  2. Food and services inflation rises<\/strong>: Rising upstream fertilizer and logistics costs drove food price increases to significantly expand in April; aviation fuel pressure forced airlines to raise fares collectively. Aviation service inflation has been rising for two consecutive months, and inflation in the contact service industry has rebounded across the board.<\/li>\n
  3. AI premium becomes a new variable<\/strong>: The explosion in demand for computing power has led to a global shortage of memory chips, directly pushing up the selling prices of PCs and related hardware terminals, contributing additional thrust to the stickiness of inflation. This new variable is an increase in inflation that has not been fully priced in by most market institutions.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    As Morningstar economists say, the \"last mile\" of inflation has been completely reversed and is even at risk of accelerating. CD Markets judged that although Goldman Sachs's year-on-year forecast of 3.78% is slightly lower than the market consensus, it has fully taken into account the impact of high oil prices, geopolitical conflicts and AI premiums. The process of inflation cooling has completely stalled, and the core PCE in 2026 will remain at a high level of around 3% for a long time.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>The Federal Reserve\u2019s policy has completely shifted: giving priority to inflation, and expectations of interest rate cuts have been completely cleared<\/strong><\/p>\n

    The trend of rebounding inflation is completely reshaping the Fed's policy stance, which is fully consistent with CD Markets' previous prediction of the Fed's policy shift. The latest statements from Federal Reserve officials monitored by CD Markets show that a clear consensus has been formed within the FOMC that \u201ccontrolling inflation is the first priority\u201d:<\/p>\n

    \"Partial<\/p>\n