{"id":10020,"date":"2026-06-02T15:36:19","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T07:36:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/?p=10020"},"modified":"2026-06-03T09:06:45","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T01:06:45","slug":"%e6%b2%b9%e4%bb%b7%e8%b7%8c%e4%ba%86-17%ef%bc%8c%e9%bb%84%e9%87%91%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e5%8f%8d%e8%80%8c%e8%b7%8c%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%9f%e6%88%b3%e7%a0%b4%e4%bc%a0%e7%bb%9f%e5%ae%9a%e4%bb%b7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/archives\/10020","title":{"rendered":"Oil prices fell 17%, why did gold fall instead? Debunking traditional pricing misunderstandings"},"content":{"rendered":"

The CD Markets precious metals and major asset research team relies on the self-built global fund high-frequency monitoring system, the Federal Reserve policy tracking model, the gold-oil ratio cycle review framework, combined with the current abnormal trends in the crude oil and gold markets, and the latest trends in global asset rotation to judge: Since 2026, gold has fallen by 17% since the year's high, entering a narrow range of 4400-4500 US dollars \/ ounce, especially in late May, Brent crude oil's largest decline was as much as Against the background of 17.16%, gold did not follow the traditional logic to rebound, but continued its downward trend. Behind this is that the gold pricing logic has undergone a phased switch, from a single geo-hedging framework to a multi-factor game stage of \"short-term capital diversion + liquidity suppression + long-term credit logic rest\".<\/p>\n

<\/a>1. Divergence of the gold-oil ratio: the core signal of the failure of the traditional pricing framework<\/strong><\/p>\n

Through long-term review and structural dismantling of the gold-oil ratio indicator, CD Markets found that the current pricing logic of gold and crude oil has completely diverged. As of the end of May, the gold-oil ratio remained in the 40-52 range. Although it has fallen significantly from the extreme high in February, it is still well above the historical average of 25 times, and is in a structurally high mean reversion stage.<\/p>\n

Different from the traditional logic that \"the decline in oil prices corresponds to recession expectations and increases the demand for gold as a safe haven\" in the past, the core of this round of decline in oil prices is the revision of supply and demand expectations brought about by the easing of geopolitical conflicts, which corresponds to the cooling of extreme risk aversion in the market; and the weakening of gold is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors, not a simple restoration of risk appetite. CD Markets judges that this differentiation just shows that the current core of gold pricing has separated from the short-term pulse of geopolitical events and shifted to the underlying logic of liquidity, capital rotation and US dollar credit.
\n\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>2. Three core drivers of gold\u2019s shock and weakness<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a>1. Short-term core headwinds: AI business model is closed-loop, and risk-averse funds continue to be diverted<\/strong><\/p>\n

CD Markets global sector rotation monitoring data shows that the primary suppression of this round of gold weakness comes from the restoration of risk appetite brought about by the implementation of the AI \u200b\u200bindustry\u2019s monetization logic. One of the core drivers of gold\u2019s epic market run in the second half of 2025 is the market\u2019s risk aversion concerns about the bubble bubble of AI narratives. \u201cAI on the left, gold on the right\u201d once became the most crowded trade in the market.<\/p>\n

However, since March 2026, AI Agent applications have been rapidly launched. Large model manufacturers have shifted from a single monthly subscription to a mature monetization model of \"subscription + pay-as-you-go\". Industry revenue has entered a secondary growth channel. The rising logic of the AI \u200b\u200bsector has completely shifted from narrative-driven to profit-driven. The risk premium of the technology sector has continued to fall, forming a significant diversion of safe-haven funds from gold.<\/p>\n

High-frequency capital data compiled by CD Markets confirms this trend: in late May, global technology funds had a net inflow of US$4.98 billion in a single week, recording capital inflows for eight consecutive weeks; while precious metal funds experienced net outflows in the fourth week in five weeks, with a net outflow of US$584 million in a single week. A Bank of America global fund manager survey shows that the current \"long gold\" trading congestion has dropped from the forefront at the beginning of the year to fourth, accounting for only 1%; CFTC gold non-commercial net long positions have dropped 39% from the high in late January, setting a new low in the past two years, and trend trading funds are continuing to leave the market.<\/p>\n

<\/a>2. Medium-term liquidity suppression: The Fed\u2019s hawkish expectations solidify and the interest rate cut window is completely closed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The CD Markets Fed policy tracking model shows that tighter liquidity expectations are the core suppressing force for gold currently. As of the end of May, the futures market\u2019s implied probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged at the end of the year had risen to 52%, the probability of raising interest rates was 38%, and the probability of cutting interest rates had completely returned to zero.
\n\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

After the new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh took office, the market has reached a unanimous consensus on its \"inflation first\" policy stance. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has continued to remain high above 4.8%, and real interest rates have remained high, directly raising the cost of holding gold. Even if the fall in oil prices brings marginal relief to inflationary pressures, it has not been able to reverse the suppression of gold prices by hawkish policy expectations. Non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures have fallen for three consecutive weeks, and the market's long-term confidence continues to be insufficient.<\/p>\n

However, CD Markets emphasized that the current rise in oil prices is only a short-term cost shock and has not formed a \"wage-inflation\" spiral. The real economy, household consumption and employment of the U.S. economy, except for AI investment, have all weakened. The Federal Reserve does not have the foundation to continue to raise interest rates. The revision of subsequent interest rate hike expectations will bring a phased rebound window for gold.<\/p>\n

<\/a>3. Deep logic rest: Institutional correction brings about a fall in the US dollar credit risk premium<\/strong><\/p>\n

The CD Markets macro policy research team pointed out that the current round of gold price elasticity has declined, and the deeper driver is the policy \"correction\" of the US political system, which has brought about a phased decline in the US dollar credit risk premium. Gold will reach new highs again and again in 2025. In addition to traditional factors such as interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors, the core is the impact of unconventional policies in pricing on the US dollar's credit and institutional boundaries.<\/p>\n

However, since 2026, the U.S. judicial system has clearly constrained unilateral tariff policies and the fiscal deficit expansion has slowed down in stages - CBO data shows that the federal deficit decreased by US$94 billion year-on-year in the first seven months of fiscal year 2026, which has significantly cooled the market's concerns about the institutional risks of the US dollar, and gold's unilateral rise has also switched to a volatile consolidation.<\/p>\n

<\/a>3. Gold trend outlook: In the short term, look at the liquidity turning point, and in the long term, look at the US dollar credit trend<\/strong><\/p>\n

CD Markets' benchmark judgment on the trend of gold is: the core trigger point for breaking the shock in the short term is the shift in liquidity expectations, and the underlying support for the long-term rise is still the long-term trend of US dollar credit.
\n\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

In the short term, the current core suppression of gold has not been lifted. If the Fed's hawkish expectations continue and the AI \u200b\u200bsector's money-making effect continues, gold prices may still maintain a volatile and weak trend. However, once the Fed's policy expectations change, the liquidity easing window opens, and concerns about AI valuation bubbles restart, gold will usher in a clear rebound.<\/p>\n

In the long term, the damage to the credit of the US dollar caused by geopolitical conflicts and the long-term structural problem of the US fiscal deficit have not been fundamentally resolved. As the ultimate reserve asset without sovereign credit risk, gold's core allocation value remains stable. This year, the volatility of gold has declined and it has entered a period of consolidation, which has provided a better layout window for the allocation of funds in the medium and long term.<\/p>\n

CD Markets will continue to track the progress of the global AI industry, Federal Reserve policy trends, US dollar credit changes and precious metal capital flows, relying on a multi-dimensional cross-market research framework to accurately grasp the core contradictions and allocation opportunities in the gold market for investors.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oil prices fell 17%, but gold weakened simultaneously, and the traditional gold-oil ratio pricing framework failed. The gold pricing logic has switched to three drivers: AI capital diversion, the solidification of the Fed's hawkish expectations, and the fall in the U.S. dollar credit risk premium. Looking at the liquidity turning point in the short term and the US dollar credit trend in the long term, the current shock provides a layout window for medium and long-term allocations.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10021,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[122],"tags":[443,1065,1072,1071],"class_list":["post-10020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tutorial","tag-443","tag-1065","tag-1072","tag-1071"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10020","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10020"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10020\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10026,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10020\/revisions\/10026"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10020"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10020"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10020"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}