{"id":10028,"date":"2026-06-05T16:23:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T08:23:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/?p=10028"},"modified":"2026-06-05T16:23:18","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T08:23:18","slug":"%e9%9d%9e%e5%86%9c%e5%91%a8%e6%80%8e%e4%bd%a0%e6%80%8e%e4%b9%88%e7%9c%8b%ef%bc%9fcd-markets-%e6%8b%86%e8%a7%a3%e5%b0%b1%e4%b8%9a%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e4%b8%8e%e5%a4%a7%e7%b1%bb%e8%b5%84%e4%ba%a7%e8%b5%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/archives\/10028","title":{"rendered":"What do you think of Non-Agricultural Week? CD Markets breaks down employment data and major asset trends"},"content":{"rendered":"

The CD Markets macro employment and policy research team relies on the self-built high-frequency monitoring framework of the U.S. labor market, the Federal Reserve's policy forward-looking model and the large-category asset linkage calculation system, combined with the May ADP employment data, JOLTS job vacancy report and non-agricultural forward-looking market consensus research and judgment: the current U.S. labor market is showing the characteristics of \"total volume exceeds expected resilience, overall structural recovery, and steady wage cooling\". This data is the Federal Reserve's 6 The monthly policy meeting provides a key anchor and will directly determine the subsequent short-term trends of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds and precious metals.<\/p>\n

<\/a>ADP data exceeds expectations: employment has shifted from a single point of support to an overall increase<\/strong><\/p>\n

The latest data tracked by CD Markets shows that U.S. private sector ADP employment increased by 122,000 in May, which was not only higher than the revised 105,000 in April, but also significantly exceeded market expectations of 110,000, setting the strongest monthly performance in 16 months since January 2025, confirming that the U.S. job market is shifting from phased fluctuations to a more solid recovery path.<\/p>\n

\"Partial<\/p>\n

Unlike previous employment growth, which was highly concentrated in the single field of health care, CD Markets' dismantling of the industry structure shows that employment showed a rare general growth trend in May: 8 of the ten major industries tracked by ADP achieved positive growth, education and medical services still led the way with 57,000 new jobs, trade and transportation utilities (+36,000), professional business services (+11,000), construction and leisure and hotel industries (+0.8 each) million) have recovered simultaneously, showing that the endogenous driving force for economic growth is spreading from local areas to the entire industry.<\/p>\n

It is worth noting that the impact of technological change on employment has initially emerged: the information services industry reduced 9,000 jobs in May. CD Markets judged that this is directly related to the optimization of functions and job restructuring brought about by the popularization of AI technology. It is a phased adjustment in the process of industrial upgrading, not an overall contraction of employment demand. On the salary side, the trend is stable. The annual salary increase of those who stay in the job remains at 4.4%, which is the same as last month. The salary growth rate of those who change jobs drops slightly to 6.5%. This mildly cooling salary trend has largely alleviated the market\u2019s concerns about the \u201cwage-inflation\u201d spiral.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Behind the data contradiction: Employment resilience \u2260 economic overheating<\/strong><\/p>\n

While ADP data is eye-catching, JOLTS job vacancy data in April shows seemingly contradictory characteristics: the number of job vacancies unexpectedly surged to 7.618 million, a new high in the past two years, but the actual number of job openings fell by 419,000. Through an in-depth analysis of the micro-behavior of the labor market, CD Markets believes that this phenomenon of \"high job postings and inefficient recruitment\" is not a signal of economic overheating, but rather reflects the prudent decision-making of enterprises under the uncertainty of the external environment.<\/p>\n

\"Partial<\/p>\n

CD Markets pointed out that the current geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran, fluctuating energy prices, and uncertain policy prospects have caused companies to be conservative in actual recruitment decisions despite their long-term employment needs. The high number of job vacancies is more of a \"reserve job\" rather than an immediate recruitment demand. This data noise does not mean that the labor market is overheating, nor will it change the Federal Reserve's overall judgment that the job market is \"stable and resilient.\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>Forecast of non-agricultural data: Deduction of asset fluctuations under five major scenarios<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the core heavyweight indicator after the ADP data, the May non-farm payrolls data to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will become a key trigger point for market pricing. The current market consensus is that 85,000 new non-farm jobs will be added in May, with the unemployment rate remaining at a historically low 4.3%.<\/p>\n

Based on historical data patterns and the current market environment, CD Markets makes the following deductions on the trends of major asset classes under different non-agricultural data scenarios:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Baseline scenario (40% probability): 70,000-100,000 new jobs created<\/strong>: In line with the market consensus of \"stable with moderation\", employment resilience is confirmed but there is no risk of overheating, the Fed is expected to maintain policy unchanged, the S&P 500 is expected to rise by 0.5%-1%, and U.S. bond yields have fallen slightly;<\/li>\n
  2. Weak scenario (25% probability): 40,000-70,000 new jobs created<\/strong>: Signs of employment cooling appear, and the market will trade ahead of expectations for interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 is expected to be flat to fall 0.75%, and U.S. bond yields are falling rapidly;<\/li>\n
  3. Stronger scenario (25% probability): 100,000-130,000 new jobs created<\/strong>: Employment resilience exceeded expectations but was not overheated, inflation concerns increased slightly, the S&P 500 fluctuated between an increase of 0.75% and a decrease of 0.25%, and U.S. bond yields rose slightly;<\/li>\n
  4. Significant weakening (5% probability): less than 40,000 new jobs<\/strong>: Signs of economic recession are emerging, market panic is rising, the S&P 500 is expected to drop 1%-1.5% in a single day, and safe-haven assets gold and U.S. Treasuries have risen sharply;<\/li>\n
  5. Significant strengthening (5% probability): more than 130,000 new jobs created<\/strong>: Overheating in employment has triggered concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes. The S&P 500 has fluctuated between a decline of 1% and a rise of 0.5%. U.S. bond yields and volatility have risen simultaneously.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"Partial<\/p>\n

    CD Markets particularly emphasized that the impact of non-agricultural data on the market is not linear: if employment strengthens significantly but the unemployment rate does not rise, strong economic growth expectations will support risky assets; only overheating of employment and rising inflation expectations will be clearly negative for the stock market.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>Fed Policy Outlook: There is a consensus that there will be no action in June<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Regarding the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting on June 16-17, CD Markets judged that the current resilience of the job market and the steady cooling of wages have provided the Federal Reserve with the optimal window to \"stand still\". The market is almost unanimously expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate range of 3.5%-3.75% unchanged.<\/p>\n

    The CD Markets policy tracking model shows that the solid performance of employment data has further consolidated the \"inflation first\" policy stance during Warsh's term. The window for interest rate cuts during the year has basically closed, but there is no strong signal that a rate increase is needed. The Federal Reserve will continue the \"hawkish stance\" tone at the June meeting, conveying its determination to fight inflation through policy statements while retaining policy flexibility.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    In May, ADP added 122,000 new jobs, the strongest in 16 months. The industry generally rose by 8\/10 with positive growth, and wages cooled steadily. There are 7.618 million JOLTS job vacancies but recruitment has declined, reflecting corporate prudence. The five major non-agricultural data scenarios are deduced, and the base scenario probability is 40%, with an increase of 70,000 to 100,000. The Fed reached a consensus to keep the policy on hold in June, continuing its hawkish tone.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10029,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[1075,1076,1073,1074],"class_list":["post-10028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-adp","tag-1076","tag-1073","tag-1074"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10028"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10028\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10033,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10028\/revisions\/10033"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10029"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}