{"id":10053,"date":"2026-06-25T17:36:58","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T09:36:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/?p=10053"},"modified":"2026-06-25T17:37:15","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T09:37:15","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e5%bc%ba%e5%8a%bf%e5%91%a8%e6%9c%9f%e4%b8%8b%e8%b4%b5%e9%87%91%e5%b1%9e%e7%a0%b4%e4%bd%8d%ef%bc%8c%e7%9f%ad%e7%a9%ba%e9%95%bf%e5%a4%9a%e9%80%bb%e8%be%91%e5%86%8d%e9%aa%8c%e8%af%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/archives\/10053","title":{"rendered":"Precious metals break down during the strong US dollar cycle, and the logic of short-term and long-term is re-verified"},"content":{"rendered":"

The precious metal market has continued to suffer heavy losses recently. Spot gold has fallen below the key mark of US$4,000 per ounce, setting a new low for the year. Silver has simultaneously fallen below the integer level of US$60 per ounce, and the correction has been significantly greater than that of gold. The CD Markets precious metals and global macro research team relies on its self-built US dollar cycle monitoring model and precious metal capital flow high-frequency tracking system, combined with the recent strengthening of the US dollar index, the latest trends in gold and silver prices, and the strategic adjustments of global mainstream institutions, to deeply dissect the core drivers of this round of precious metals decline, and make systematic research and judgment on short, medium and long-term trends.<\/p>\n

Market data tracked by CD Markets shows that the core logic of this round of decline has completely shifted from the previous geo-hedging pricing to interest rate and US dollar pricing. The market is rapidly revising the Federal Reserve's policy path. It has basically included expectations of two Fed interest rate hikes before the first quarter of 2027. Some transactions are even betting that the first interest rate hike may occur as early as the July interest rate meeting. The continued upward revision of interest rate expectations directly pushed the U.S. dollar index above 101.50, setting a record high of May 2025. The U.S. Treasury yields have risen simultaneously, reaching their highest level since August, further raising the opportunity cost of holding zero-coupon precious metals and directly suppressing gold prices.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

This round of market style switching is not sudden. CD Markets traced back the market context and found that the turning point had already appeared at the end of January when Warsh was nominated as the chairman of the Federal Reserve. At that time, the market began to re-evaluate the existing macro trading logic. Gold plummeted about 13% from its historical high that day, setting the largest single-day decline in more than 40 years. The US dollar ended its decline and began to rebound. Although Warsh was nominated for supporting interest rate cuts, his past image as an \"anti-inflation hawk\" has always made the market cautious. The first FOMC meeting hosted by Warsh last week completely strengthened this trend. He clearly put price stability at the top of the policy, completely breaking the market's expectations of his bias towards easing, and related transactions were once again under pressure. CD Markets cross-checked the views of multiple institutions and found that the market has generally revised its understanding of Warsh. The previous judgment that he would forcefully cut interest rates regardless of inflation has been falsified, and his policy stance is significantly more hawkish than the market's initial expectations.<\/p>\n

Changes in capital more intuitively confirm this trend. Global precious metal ETF capital flow data monitored by CD Markets shows that since this month, the world's largest gold ETF SPDR Gold Shares has experienced a net outflow of nearly US$1 billion. The cumulative outflow since the end of February has expanded to US$12 billion, setting a record for the largest outflow in any four-month period since 2013. Speculative funds are also continuing to withdraw. The CFTC gold non-commercial net long position has fallen back to a nearly two-year low. The departure of trend trading funds has further amplified the downward momentum of gold prices. At the same time, mainstream institutions around the world have lowered their gold and silver price expectations. Deutsche Bank has significantly reduced its gold price forecast by 22%. Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end target price by US$500 to US$4,900 per ounce. ING has also lowered its average gold price forecast in the third quarter of 2026 from US$4,850 to US$4,300 and in the fourth quarter from US$5,000 to 4,600. The U.S. dollar and silver forecasts were revised downward simultaneously, reflecting the market's general caution about short-term trends.<\/p>\n

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CD Markets specifically pointed out that the current geopolitical tensions have not promoted the inflow of safe-haven funds into precious metals as in the past. Investors' focus has shifted from pure hedging needs to the impact of geopolitical events on inflation and monetary policy paths. This is also the core reason for the phased failure of gold's safe-haven properties. For silver, its decline is greater than that of gold. This is due to the common factors of overall pressure on precious metals and its own fundamental logic: although silver as a whole may still maintain a supply shortage, some key demand drivers are weakening, and solar demand growth is slowing. At the same time, the continued trend of frugal use and material substitution in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry is reducing the amount of silver used per panel, making the support margin of the industrial demand side weaker.<\/p>\n

Although short-term cyclical factors prevail, CD Markets' long-term research framework shows that the structural logic underpinning gold has not fundamentally changed. The core driver supporting the surge in gold prices over the past two years has been concerns about the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar brought about by U.S. fiscal expansion and inflation that continues to be higher than the target. The underlying basis of this logic has not disappeared: the current U.S. budget deficit is still close to 6% of GDP, and although the Treasury Secretary has promised to halve it during his term, the continued expansion of the debt scale is still a long-term hidden danger. Major economies such as the United Kingdom and Japan are also facing pressure on fiscal sustainability. Central bank gold purchase data tracked by CD Markets shows that the scale of global central bank gold purchases remained stable in May, structural buying with low price elasticity has always existed, and the long-term trend of global reserve diversification and de-dollarization has not been reversed. This is also the core reason why bottom support always exists during the decline of gold prices.<\/p>\n

\"Partial<\/p>\n

Looking forward to the follow-up trend, CD Markets judges that gold will still face greater downward pressure in the short term. The pattern of a stronger U.S. dollar, high U.S. bond yields, and weak investment demand will be difficult to reverse in the short term. The market will next focus on the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data. This indicator favored by the Federal Reserve may further guide the policy path. If the inflation data exceeds expectations, gold prices may further test the support level. However, in the medium term, the current upward revision of interest rate expectations is relatively sufficient. As inflation gradually falls and economic growth pressure emerges, policy expectations will shift again, and gold will usher in a restorative rise window. In the long term, the prolongation of fiscal deficits and debt problems, as well as the diversification trend of the global monetary system, will still support the continued upward movement of gold's pricing center. The current correction has instead provided a better layout window for medium and long-term investors. In terms of silver, despite the pressure on the short-term demand side, the global electrification trend will still support its long-term demand foundation. Coupled with the rigid constraints on the supply side, it still has the potential to outperform gold in the long term.<\/p>\n

CD Markets recommends that investors adopt a strategy of building positions in batches, gradually deploy medium- and long-term gold positions in the range of US$3,800-4,000, avoid short-chasing operations, and pay close attention to changes in the Federal Reserve's policy signals and inflation data. CD Markets will continue to track the trend of the U.S. dollar index, Federal Reserve policy trends, precious metal capital flows and fundamental changes, and rely on a multi-dimensional research framework to accurately grasp market opportunities for investors.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gold fell below $4,000 to hit a new low for the year, silver fell below $60, and the U.S. dollar index surged to 101.50, hitting a new high since May 2025. The market has factored in expectations for the first two interest rate hikes in Q1 of 2027, and the SPDR gold ETF saw a net outflow of nearly US$1 billion this month, the largest four-month outflow since 2013. Warsh's first FOMC meeting strengthened the hawkish stance, and gold's safe-haven properties gradually failed. There is short-term pressure, but the long-term logic of fiscal deficit and de-dollarization has not changed. It is recommended to build positions in batches at US$3,800-4,000.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10054,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[1082,1083,1081,1080],"class_list":["post-10053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-1082","tag-1083","tag-1081","tag-1080"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10053"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10053\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10058,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10053\/revisions\/10058"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10054"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}