{"id":10035,"date":"2026-06-11T16:53:56","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T08:53:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/?p=10035"},"modified":"2026-06-11T17:36:29","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T09:36:29","slug":"%e5%88%9b-2008-%e5%b9%b4%e4%bb%a5%e6%9d%a5%e6%9c%80%e5%bf%ab%e7%ba%aa%e5%bd%95%e9%bb%84%e9%87%91%e9%97%aa%e7%94%b5%e5%85%a5%e7%86%8a%e8%83%8c%e5%90%8e%e7%9a%84%e5%a4%9a%e7%a9%ba%e5%8d%9a%e5%bc%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/vi\/luu-tru\/10035","title":{"rendered":"K\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c nhanh nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2008! Tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng mang t\u00ednh chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1eb1ng sau tia s\u00e9t c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd v\u00e0 ph\u00e1i sinh c\u1ee7a CD Markets d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u00e0ng t\u1ef1 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng, h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t t\u1ea7n s\u1ed1 cao v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0ng, s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u ph\u00e1i sinh \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 ph\u00e1n \u0111o\u00e1n: K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2026, v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m h\u01a1n 20% ch\u1ec9 sau 91 ng\u00e0y, ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ea5u k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m nhanh nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb Cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u0103m 2008. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c ch\u01a1i s\u00e2u s\u1eafc gi\u1eefa \"gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng t\u1eadp trung c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c thanh kho\u1ea3n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n\" v\u00e0 \"h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1\". Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng v\u1eabn ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 trong th\u00e1ng 6, tuy nhi\u00ean m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u0129 m\u00f4 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd d\u1ea7n chuy\u1ec3n bi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i trong n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

<\/a>\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u1eafc nghi\u1ec7t: Tia s\u00e9t 91 ng\u00e0y t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng phe g\u1ea5u, ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 logic \u00e1c c\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 xu\u1ed1ng do CD Markets t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ee3t gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m gi\u1ea3m nhanh hi\u1ebfm th\u1ea5y: ch\u1ec9 m\u1ea5t 91 ng\u00e0y t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c cao theo t\u1eebng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3 \u0111\u1ebfn khi x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 xu\u1ed1ng v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 6, ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ee9ng sau \u0111\u1ee3t gi\u1ea3m nhanh 23 ng\u00e0y trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u0103m 2008 v\u00e0 v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa th\u1eddi gian \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 xu\u1ed1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 nh\u01b0 n\u0103m 2006 (105 ng\u00e0y), 2013 (411 ng\u00e0y) v\u00e0 2022 (538 ng\u00e0y). T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 6, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n tr\u00ean s\u00e0n Comex \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea1m m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p 4.046 USD\/ounce, gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed5ng c\u1ed9ng 21% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c 5.600 USD trong th\u00e1ng 1 v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong n\u0103m chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb d\u01b0\u01a1ng sang \u00e2m xu\u1ed1ng -5%.<\/p>\n

\"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

Tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng, \u0111\u1ee3t suy gi\u1ea3m n\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c leo thang \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n. Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t li\u00ean k\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a CD Market cho th\u1ea5y k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 6, h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Nasdaq \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 0,91, g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ed9 h\u00f3a, cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a \"c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 v\u00e0ng t\u0103ng gi\u1ea3m c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t l\u00fac.\" B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u1ea3i b\u00e1n th\u00e1o t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n trong chu k\u1ef3 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t thanh kho\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n

<\/a>\u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m: k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t chi\u1ebfm \u01b0u th\u1ebf, nhi\u1ec1u c\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a CD Markets v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y v\u00f2ng suy gi\u1ea3m n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh l\u00e0 l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i k\u00ecm h\u00e3m gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 nh\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ed7 cho s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t phi r\u1ee7i ro. CPI c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt l\u00ean 4,2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 trong th\u00e1ng 5, \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2023, lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea9y kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c. L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 30 n\u0103m v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 5% v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t 10 n\u0103m t\u0103ng l\u00ean 4,535%, khi\u1ebfn chi ph\u00ed n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng tr\u1ea3 l\u00e3i t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c t\u1eeb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0ng sang tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, nhi\u1ec1u t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u00e2m c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam \u0111\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m:<\/p>\n

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  1. B\u00e1n th\u00e1o c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i<\/strong>: Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a T\u00fcrkiye \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1n v\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh gi\u1ea3m d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho chi\u1ebfn tranh, v\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 t\u0103ng thu\u1ebf nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf nhu c\u1ea7u;<\/li>\n
  2. S\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u00e1n h\u00e0ng th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/strong>: Sau khi gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 200 ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 4.400 USD, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn l\u1ec7nh d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ed5 ra, t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u201cgi\u1ea3m \u2192 d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 \u2192 gi\u1ea3m th\u00eam\u201d;<\/li>\n
  3. R\u00fat ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1<\/strong>: V\u1ecb th\u1ebf r\u00f2ng phi th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a CFTC ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 giao d\u1ecbch theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 x\u00f3a v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0 r\u1eddi kh\u1ecfi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

    <\/a>T\u00edn hi\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan: quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c lao d\u1ed1c, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu khai th\u00e1c v\u00e0ng cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3<\/strong><\/p>\n

    D\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t ph\u00e1i sinh c\u1ee7a CD Markets cho th\u1ea5y t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 bi quan. Ph\u00ed quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n chi\u1ebfm t\u1edbi 65% giao d\u1ecbch quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn xung quanh qu\u1ef9 ETF v\u00e0ng (GLD), v\u1edbi 8 trong s\u1ed1 10 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c nh\u1ea5t trong ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n. T\u00edch c\u1ef1c nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n h\u1ebft h\u1ea1n v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 6 n\u0103m 2028 v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n l\u00e0 240 USD, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng 40% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i trong hai n\u0103m t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

    Tuy nhi\u00ean, tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng giao ngay, l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c khai th\u00e1c v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n \u0111i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng. Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn mua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean VanEck Gold Mining Stock ETF (GDX) trong ng\u00e0y g\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 2 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn mua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mua g\u1ea5p 3 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a CD Markets tin r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 ra \u0111i n\u00e0y l\u00e0 do l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf v\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty khai th\u00e1c v\u00e0ng: chi ph\u00ed khai th\u00e1c trung b\u00ecnh hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty khai th\u00e1c v\u00e0ng ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 1.500 USD m\u1ed7i ounce. Ngay c\u1ea3 khi gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c tr\u00ean 4.000 USD, n\u00f3 v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3. So v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u00e0ng, hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu khai th\u00e1c v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ea7n n\u1ed5i l\u00ean.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>S\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng: tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i gi\u1eefa \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/strong><\/p>\n

    S\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n nay v\u1ec1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c c\u1ef1c \u0111oan trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. M\u00e2u thu\u1eabn c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i n\u1eb1m \u1edf m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng thanh kho\u1ea3n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n