{"id":9988,"date":"2026-05-21T15:31:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T07:31:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/?p=9988"},"modified":"2026-05-22T16:24:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T08:24:14","slug":"%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e9%9b%86%e4%bd%93%e5%87%8f%e6%8c%81%e7%be%8e%e5%80%ba%ef%bc%81wmax-%e7%82%b9%e7%a0%b4%e5%8e%bb%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e5%8c%96%e6%a0%b8%e5%bf%83%e9%80%bb%e8%be%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ycnkyy.com\/vi\/luu-tru\/9988","title":{"rendered":"Chuy\u1ec3n giao quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 nan gi\u1ea3i v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, CD Markets gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 Warsh"},"content":{"rendered":"

V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 22 th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2026, Kevin Warsh ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c tuy\u00ean th\u1ec7 nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9c Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang t\u1ea1i Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng, m\u1edf ra m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c m\u1edbi cho ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a CD Markets k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c nh\u00e2n s\u1ef1 m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u theo d\u00f5i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t cao, h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng theo d\u00f5i d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a \u1ee7y ban b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu FOMC v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec3 tri\u1ec7t ph\u00e1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n c\u00e1c tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn s\u00e2u s\u1eafc \u0111\u1eb1ng sau vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n giao n\u00e0y, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u00e0m r\u00f5 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ed1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Fed v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u trong k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean Warsh.<\/p>\n

<\/a>T\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan v\u1ec1 chuy\u1ec3n giao quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t: C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t h\u00f3a di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a CD Markets \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng khi Warsh nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9c ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang, vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n giao quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1eb7t ra nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c k\u00e9p. C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch b\u1ecb chi ph\u1ed1i b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u v\u00e0 gia t\u0103ng s\u1ef1 chia r\u1ebd n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9. Vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n giao n\u00e0y ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 g\u1ea7n 80 n\u0103m th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh. C\u1ef1u Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Powell s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1eef ch\u1ee9c v\u1ee5 gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c cho \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2028 sau khi nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng k\u1ebft th\u00fac \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u201cchung m\u1ed9t m\u00e1i nh\u00e0 c\u0169 m\u1edbi\u201d mang \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ph\u1ed1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch. Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea5p thu\u1eadn \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eed c\u1ee7a Warsh v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 s\u00edt sao v\u00e0 Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng ch\u1ecbu tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m s\u1eafp x\u1ebfp nh\u00e2n s\u1ef1 trong su\u1ed1t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh, n\u00eau b\u1eadt \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh can thi\u1ec7p v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, CD Markets tin r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed trong FOMC, truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 qu\u00e1n t\u00ednh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

\"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

Warsh ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng khi nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9c. B\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi xung \u0111\u1ed9t gi\u1eefa Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Iran \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng cao, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 CPI c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 3,8% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 trong th\u00e1ng 4 v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 CPI c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 2,8%. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u00e1ng 5 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bv\u01b0\u1ee3t 4,18%, c\u00e1ch xa m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2%. Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng l\u00ean cao v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a FOMC. T\u1ea1i cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 4, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu l\u00e0 8:4 \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, v\u1edbi 4 phi\u1ebfu ch\u1ed1ng, m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1992. Doves y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, trong khi phe di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u. C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang nh\u00ecn chung \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i: l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 2 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Khung ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch Wash: Ba tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa danh ti\u1ebfng<\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201cng\u01b0\u1eddi quen c\u0169\u201d c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang t\u1eebng ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 George W. Bush, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Warsh \u0111\u00e3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh n\u00ean m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh. Th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c xem x\u00e9t to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n c\u00e1c nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t c\u00f4ng khai tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, quan \u0111i\u1ec3m h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt v\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Warsh, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi b\u1ea3n t\u00f3m t\u1eaft c\u1ee7a Nick Timiraos, ph\u00f3ng vi\u00ean c\u1ea5p cao c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang tr\u00ean t\u1edd Wall Street Journal, CD Markets \u0111\u00e3 t\u00f3m t\u1eaft logic ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh l\u00e0 \u201cs\u1eeda ch\u1eefa uy t\u00edn v\u00e0 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1\u201d, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu bao g\u1ed3m ba tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i:<\/p>\n

Khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t: T\u1eeb b\u1ecf truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t theo th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c<\/strong><\/p>\n

Warsh b\u00e1c b\u1ecf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong Phillips c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n v\u00e0 cho r\u1eb1ng nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u00ednh g\u00e2y ra l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0 do chi ti\u00eau ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i do t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng. \u00d4ng t\u1eeb b\u1ecf m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea CPI truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 v\u00e0 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t linh ho\u1ea1t th\u00f4ng qua d\u1eef li\u1ec7u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a theo th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c. \u00d4ng tin r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

\"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

B\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n: Gi\u1ea3m b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t c\u00e1c ranh gi\u1edbi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c x\u00f3a m\u1edd ranh gi\u1edbi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n do quy m\u00f4 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 6,7 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 RMB c\u1ee7a Fed g\u00e2y ra, Warsh \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m r\u00f5 l\u1ea1i ranh gi\u1edbi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n, ki\u00ean quy\u1ebft t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u0103n b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n vi\u1ec7c s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 th\u00f4 s\u01a1 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 t\u00edch l\u0169y d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

C\u01a1 ch\u1ebf giao ti\u1ebfp: h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n v\u00e0 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i<\/strong><\/p>\n

Warsh t\u1eeb b\u1ecf m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed v\u00e0 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m can thi\u1ec7p th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, tr\u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, t\u1eadp trung ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Ba h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf: Kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nh\u00f3m suy lu\u1eadn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a CD Markets tin r\u1eb1ng k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch chi ti\u1ebft ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Wash s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi ba h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua v\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd di\u1ec5n ra ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n l\u00e0 g\u00e2y gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n:<\/p>\n