The CD Markets precious metals and U.S. macro research team relies on its self-built non-farm employment monitoring model and the Federal Reserve policy path tracking system, combined with the just-released June U.S. non-farm employment data and the latest market reaction, to make systematic research and judgment on job market trends, the direction of the Federal Reserve policy and the subsequent trend of precious metals. The U.S. non-farm employment data in June showed obvious "mixed" characteristics, with newly created employment falling significantly short of expectations as the core factor that exceeded expectations.

CD Markets tracking data shows that the U.S.'s seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment in June was only 57,000, less than half of the 110,000 expected by the market. The previous two months' data were both revised down: April's new employment was revised down from 179,000 to 148,000, and May's new employment was revised down from 172,000 to 129,000. The total number of new jobs in the two months was revised down by 74,000, marking the official end of three consecutive months of employment growth exceeding expectations, and the labor market cooling significantly. Although the unemployment rate fell back to 4.2%, the lowest level since June 2025, CD Markets' in-depth dismantling of the data structure pointed out that this decline was not due to an improvement in the job market, but was caused by a sharp drop of 0.3 percentage points in the labor participation rate - part of the labor force exited the job market and was no longer included in the unemployment population, making the unemployment rate data characterized by a "virtual drop", and the real resilience of the job market is weaker than the superficial data.

From the perspective of industry structure, the structural characteristics of this hiring slowdown are very obvious: employment in the leisure and hospitality industries has experienced the largest decline since 2020, and layoffs have also occurred in the retail trade and information industries. Only the health care and social assistance industry hiring has remained strong. CD Markets cross-validated initial jobless claims data for the same period and found that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ended June 27 was 215,000, slightly lower than market expectations. The number of continuing jobless claims remained at a relatively low level of 1.814 million, indicating that companies did not experience large-scale layoffs, but hiring intentions have become significantly more cautious, which is directly related to employers' concerns about high prices and uncertain economic prospects.

After the non-agricultural data was released, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates quickly cooled, and asset prices showed significant changes. Interest rate swap data tracked by CD Markets shows that the market's probability of raising interest rates at the Federal Reserve's July meeting has plummeted to 20% from 33% before the data was released. The October interest rate hike widely expected by the market has been postponed to December, and the cumulative number of interest rate hikes by March 2027 has also been reduced from nearly two to less than two. Affected by this, the U.S. dollar index fell to 100.58 in the short term, hitting a two-week low; the two-year U.S. bond yield, which is most sensitive to monetary policy, fell 6 basis points to 4.11%, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell 2 basis points to 4.46%; precious metals ushered in a strong rebound, with spot gold rising by nearly $70, touching $4,140 per ounce, with an intraday increase of up to 2.5%, and as of the latest trading day has further risen to US$4,192 per ounce, which is expected to end the longest losing streak in eight years; silver rebounded simultaneously, non-US currencies generally rose, and the three major US stock index futures continued their gains.

Regarding the nature and subsequent trend of gold's rebound, CD Markets combined technical, financial and fundamental multi-dimensional analysis and believes that the cooling of short-term interest rate hike expectations is the core driver, but the trend reversal still needs more signals to verify. From a technical perspective, gold prices have previously found sustained support in the $3950-$3960 range. This round of correction has lasted four months. The daily MACD is clearly oversold and has the technical basis for a rebound; however, CD Markets pointed out that only when the daily line firmly stands above the key resistance level of $4215 can the formation of a cyclical bottom be confirmed, opening up room for further growth. If it cannot effectively break through, it may still return to a volatile consolidation pattern.

There are still clear differences in the market on whether gold has bottomed out. CD Markets believes that the core variable of the subsequent trend still lies in the evolution of the US dollar trend and the Fed's policy expectations. On the one hand, if the recent strength of the U.S. dollar shows a trend reversal, it will provide continued support for gold; however, the current decline of the U.S. dollar is more of a short-term correction triggered by non-agricultural data. Whether its strong trend has truly reversed still needs to be confirmed. Some investors may take advantage of gold's rebound to reduce their positions, and the short-term rebound still faces resistance. On the other hand, the trend of inflation and oil prices will directly affect policy expectations. If the situation in the Middle East eases and pushes oil prices to continue to fall, it will further reduce inflationary pressure, reduce the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and form support for non-interest-bearing gold; conversely, if a rebound in oil prices reignites inflation concerns, interest rate hike expectations may rise again, suppressing gold prices.

CD Markets specifically pointed out that although there are still uncertainties in the short-term trend, the medium and long-term allocation value of gold has gradually emerged. After this round of correction, the valuation pressure on gold has been significantly released, but the core logic supporting gold's long-term trend - the pressure on the U.S. fiscal deficit, the global de-dollarization trend, and the central bank's continued gold purchase demand have not changed. For medium and long-term investors, the current position is cost-effective for batch layout, but it is not advisable to blindly chase highs in the short term. You can wait for further clarity of policy signals before making a decision to add positions.

In the following week, due to the US Independence Day holiday, market data will be relatively light, and the trend of gold will be driven more by geopolitical news and oil price fluctuations. CD Markets will continue to track the statements of Federal Reserve officials, inflation data and changes in the trend of the US dollar, and rely on a multi-dimensional research framework to accurately grasp trading and allocation opportunities in the precious metals market for investors.